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Scientists say that despite humanity’s efforts to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, the northern hemisphere will still experience longer-lasting dangerous heat waves, droughts and showers in summer. Global temperatures are now only 1 degree Celsius higher than before the industrial period, and such extreme weather has become more intense. A heat wave in 2003 alone killed more than 70,000 people in Europe.

Global warming is no longer under human control

Lead author Peter Pfleiderer, a doctoral researcher at Humboldt University in Berlin, said: “We can see a significant shift in summer weather conditions… longer durations of extreme weather, hot and dry periods, and The days of heavy rain will become longer.”

The new report, published in Nature Climate Change, is the first study to quantify how long extreme weather will persist if temperatures rise by another 1 degree. If the duration of extreme weather increases, it will have a major impact on human health, food production, biodiversity, and even economic growth.

For example, during the 2018 European heat wave, several weeks of intense heat and drought reduced German wheat production by 15%.

In the United States, the past 12 months have been the wettest on record, with a large swath of the core being shut down due to persistent rain and flooding.

The study looks at changes in the Northern Hemisphere’s climate system that could trigger more extreme weather. Co-author Dim Coumou of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam said: “Climate models show that as the earth warms, large-scale summer atmospheric circulation, including the jet stream and storm tracks, are systematically changing. weakening phenomenon.”

As atmospheric circulation weakens, hot and dry weather conditions will accumulate over the continents. At the same time, hurricanes and typhoons carrying water vapor will stay in one place for a longer period of time.

According to new research results, when global temperatures increase by 2 degrees Celsius, the probability of a hot period lasting more than two weeks will be 4% higher than today, and the duration will be longer in eastern North America, central Europe, and northern Asia.

In central North America, there is a 10% chance of such dry weather lasting more than 14 days. Across the Northern Hemisphere, the chance of brief periods of heavy rain will increase by 25%.

The 2015 Paris Agreement, now in its fourth year of effect, commits countries around the world to limit temperatures to “below” two degrees Celsius, and if possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, many scientists say that it is no longer possible to control warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Carbon dioxide emissions have increased to record highs in the past two years and will hit another record in 2019.

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